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Prediction Market Compare
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Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 meetingK 62¢P 64¢·Will US CPI year-over-year exceed 3.0% in December 2026K 41¢P 39¢·Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 in 2026K 55¢P 58¢·Will a US recession be declared for 2026K 18¢P 17¢·Will Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midtermsK 71¢P 69¢·Will Democrats win the House in the 2026 midtermsK 66¢P 68¢·Will Bitcoin trade above $150,000 by end of 2026K 42¢P 44¢·Will SpaceX launch an uncrewed Starship toward Mars in 2026K 14¢P 12¢·Will a 2026 World Cup host nation reach the quarter-finalsK 31¢P 33¢·Will an AI-assisted film receive a 2027 Oscar nominationK 23¢P 26¢·

Independent prediction-market comparison

Compare prediction markets in one place.

Prices, probabilities, fees and liquidity across platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket — explained clearly, without the hype.

Compare platformsWhat are prediction markets?
Platforms tracked
2
Example markets
10
Cost to use
$0

Markets

Explore markets across platforms

Search example markets and see how the same event is priced on each venue. When prices differ, the spread tells you where the market disagrees with itself.

Demonstration data — example markets with illustrative prices, not live quotes.

10 markets

EconomicsΔ 2.0 pts

Will the Fed cut rates at the September 2026 meeting?

Kalshi
$1.8M vol62¢
Polymarket
$3.1M vol64¢

Closes Sep 16, 2026 · Demo data

EconomicsΔ 2.0 pts

Will US CPI year-over-year exceed 3.0% in December 2026?

Kalshi
$920K vol41¢
Polymarket
$1.3M vol39¢

Closes Jan 13, 2027 · Demo data

FinanceΔ 3.0 pts

Will the S&P 500 close above 7,000 in 2026?

Kalshi
$640K vol55¢
Polymarket
$1.5M vol58¢

Closes Dec 31, 2026 · Demo data

EconomicsΔ 1.0 pts

Will a US recession be declared for 2026?

Kalshi
$410K vol18¢
Polymarket
$760K vol17¢

Closes Dec 31, 2026 · Demo data

PoliticsΔ 2.0 pts

Will Republicans hold the Senate in the 2026 midterms?

Kalshi
$3.0M vol71¢
Polymarket
$6.4M vol69¢

Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Demo data

PoliticsΔ 2.0 pts

Will Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms?

Kalshi
$2.1M vol66¢
Polymarket
$5.2M vol68¢

Closes Nov 3, 2026 · Demo data

FinanceΔ 2.0 pts

Will Bitcoin trade above $150,000 by end of 2026?

Polymarket
$3.8M vol44¢
Kalshi
$510K vol42¢

Closes Dec 31, 2026 · Demo data

ScienceΔ 2.0 pts

Will SpaceX launch an uncrewed Starship toward Mars in 2026?

Polymarket
$290K vol12¢
Kalshi
$130K vol14¢

Closes Dec 31, 2026 · Demo data

SportsΔ 2.0 pts

Will a 2026 World Cup host nation reach the quarter-finals?

Polymarket
$1.8M vol33¢
Kalshi
$880K vol31¢

Closes Jul 10, 2026 · Demo data

CultureΔ 3.0 pts

Will an AI-assisted film receive a 2027 Oscar nomination?

Polymarket
$340K vol26¢
Kalshi
$95K vol23¢

Closes Jan 23, 2027 · Demo data

Platforms

Compare platforms

Regulation, fees, liquidity and market coverage differ more than most traders expect. Start with the two venues that define the category.

Full comparison →

Kalshi

Since 2018

The regulated US event-contract exchange

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where US users trade event contracts in dollars. It emphasizes regulatory compliance, dollar settlement, and a broad catalog spanning economics, politics, weather, and culture.

Currency
US dollars (USD)
Trading fees
Formula-based per contract; highest near 50¢, lower near price extremes
Regulation
CFTC-designated contract market (DCM), USA
Kalshi profile

Polymarket

Since 2020

The largest crypto-native prediction market

Polymarket is the highest-volume prediction market, settling in USDC on Polygon. Known for deep liquidity on major events and zero trading fees, it re-entered the US market under CFTC oversight after operating offshore for several years.

Currency
USDC stablecoin
Trading fees
No trading fees on most markets historically
Regulation
Operates a CFTC-designated exchange for US access; global platform settles on Polygon
Polymarket profile

Process

How Prediction Market Compare works

01

Aggregate markets

We track the platforms where real prediction markets trade — starting with Kalshi and Polymarket — and collect how each one structures prices, fees and liquidity.

02

Match equivalent events

The same real-world question is often listed on several venues with different wording and resolution rules. We match markets that genuinely resolve on the same outcome, so comparisons are apples-to-apples.

03

Compare and decide

See probabilities, prices, fees and depth side by side. Spot where venues disagree, understand why, and choose the platform that fits how you trade.

Read more about how we compare platforms in our methodology.

Learn

New to prediction markets?

A prediction-market price is a probability you can trade. Once that clicks, everything else — fees, spreads, liquidity — follows. Our guides explain the mechanics from first principles, without jargon.

Browse all guides →

Featured guide · 9 min read

What are prediction markets? A plain-English introduction

How event contracts work, why prices behave like probabilities, what the research says about their accuracy, and the practical risks to understand before you trade a single contract.

Read the guide →

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

The essentials on prediction markets, this site, and how to read the numbers.

What is a prediction market?

A prediction market is an exchange where people trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events — elections, economic data, sports, and more. Prices move between $0 and $1 and can be read as the market's estimate of the probability that the event happens. A contract trading at 62¢ implies roughly a 62% chance.

What does Prediction Market Compare do?

We help you compare prediction-market platforms in one place: how they are regulated, what they charge, how deep their liquidity is, and how the same event is priced across venues. Version 1 focuses on structured platform comparisons and educational guides; live cross-platform price feeds are on our roadmap.

Are the prices on this site live?

No. All market prices shown on this site are demonstration data — illustrative examples used to show how cross-platform comparison works. They are not live quotes and should not be used to make trading decisions. Live data integration is planned for a future release.

Why would the same event have different prices on different platforms?

Each platform has its own order book, its own user base, and its own fees and frictions. Small price differences usually reflect fees, funding costs, and liquidity rather than free money. Persistent large gaps are rarer and tend to close quickly as traders arbitrage them.

Is trading on prediction markets legal in the United States?

It depends on the platform and where you live. Kalshi operates as a CFTC-regulated exchange available to eligible US residents, and Polymarket restored US access through a regulated structure after several years operating offshore. Eligibility can vary by state and product — always check the platform's current terms.

Does Prediction Market Compare offer trading or investment advice?

No. We are an independent information and comparison service. Nothing on this site is investment, legal, or tax advice, and we do not execute trades. Prediction markets involve risk, including the loss of your entire stake on a position.

Coming next: live data

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